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Free MLB Pick - Friday 5/23

May 22, 2008

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There may be a bundle of Major League Baseball games going on Friday, but we’ve got our eye on just one.  Friday’s play is our biggest underdog play of the week, which means you’ll risk less and get paid more if our home dog hits.  As always, we are looking at the value of the play and this match up is oozing with it. 

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitching is probably the single most important factor to consider when betting on baseball.  At the same time, it’s also the most overrated factor.  How can that be?  Well, a hot or a consistent starting pitchers warrants a bet, but only if the price is right.  You have to be a bargain shopper out there.  Don’t throw your cash out on Brandon Webb every time he takes the mound.  Not because you won’t win the majority of the time, because most of the time the risk isn’t worth the reward, especially in baseball.  I’d be much less likely to throw down 100 to win 170 than I would be to bet the 170 in order to win the 100.  The value just isn’t there and, in the long run, you’ll never come out ahead betting on big favorites in baseball.  Friday the Pirates are +155 (or better) underdogs against the Chicago Cubs and Carlos Zambrano.  The Big Z is a fireballer, no questions about that, but he’s also inconsistent and seems to break-down mentally more than some of the other big-name pitchers.  The Pirates really are not as bad as they have been in the past.  They have some significant pop in their lineup, plus they are playing at home.  The value here is on Pittsburgh.
Pick:  Pittsburgh Pirates +155

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