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NBA Wednesday - Western Conference Finals Pick

Wednesday night’s NBA contest pits the San Antonio Spurs against the Los Angeles Lakers.  I’m struggling to decide if this is the match up that everyone has been waiting for.  For all of their success, the Spurs are, by perception or reality, a boring team to watch.  It’s not that they don’t have good players, and it’s not that they don’t make exciting plays, it just feels like there is always a grey cloud following them around.  Maybe it’s just me.  The Lakers are nearly the opposite of the Spurs in style, they seem young and fresh and explosive, yet they are unproven.  I don’t know if it’s the match up you’ve been waiting for, but I’ve just convinced myself that the contrasting styles should make for a fun Western Conference Finals series!

San Antonio Spurs @ L.A. Lakers
You can say that I’ve gone and drank the media’s Kool-Aid, but I’ve become a believer in the power of home court in the NBA Playoffs.  It’s been such an overwhelming trend that I can’t justify going against it, especially in these circumstances.  In the two regular season games between the Spurs and the Lakers, one game was played in L.A., the other in San Antonio.  Can you guess the results?  OK, don’t guess, I’ll just tell you.  The Lakers won in L.A. and the Spurs won in San Antonio.  They not only won, but they covered the spread.  L.A. won their game by 21 points, the Spurs by 12.  The Lakers are seven point favorites right now.  I’m not so sure they are going to win by 21 points, but 10+ wouldn’t be out of the question.
Pick:  L.A. Lakers -7

Popularity: 26% [?]

NBA Playoff Pick 5/20/2008

Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off on Tuesday night.  The first match-up in the East features the much touted Boston Celtics against the wily veteran Detroit Pistons.  It’s a clash of two great teams to be sure, but with Boston currently sitting as 4.5 point favorites at home, which direction should your bets be leaning?

Game 1 - Eastern Conference Finals - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
The Pistons are one of the few teams to have actually picked up a win against the Celtics in Boston in the regular season this year.  While that’s quite a feat itself, don’t let that sway your opinion too much.  I saw the Celtics build a lot of confidence in their last series.  Face it, they face as much pressure as anyone because they are expected to win every time they step on the court.  That’s completely unrealistic of course, but what’s not unrealistic is to expect them to come out and win big every time they step on their home court in the playoffs. 
Your Game 1 Winner:  Boston Celtics -4.5

Popularity: 25% [?]

Free NBA Playoff Pick 5/19/2008

The Spurs and Hornets meet for game seven of the Western Conference Semi-Finals Monday.  San Antonio has dominated the West for the better part of a decade, but there could be a passing of the guard to Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets.

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets
By now you’ve probably heard all of the talk about home teams winning at an unprecedented rate in the NBA Playoffs this year.  It’s 100% true, but nowhere is it more apparent than in the Spurs/Hornets series.  Seriously, the home team is a perfect 6-0 and the margin of victory in those games is sick.  We are talking about the home team winning by 19, 22, 20, 18, 11, and 19 again throughout the course of this series.  If that’s not an advantage to the Hornets, I don’t know what is!  Besides that point, you also have to love the enthusiasm of the younger, more exciting New Orleans team. 
Pick:  New Orleans Hornets -4

Popularity: 27% [?]

Free NBA Playoff Pick 5/18/2008

The NBA’s Eastern Conference Semi Finals will have a winner Sunday.  Home teams have gone 13-2 so far in the playoffs.  Will the Celtics follow suit or can Lebron and the Cavs beat the odds?

Cleveland Cavs @ Boston Celtics
I think you have to follow the home trend for this game, which says the game’s winner will be the home team.  In this case, the Boston Celtics.  I have to agree that they will likely win the game.  Eight points, however, is pretty steep for the playoffs, Boston has played much better at home during the playoffs, but they haven’t been the dominant team everyone remembers from the regular season.  As long as Lebron is healthy the Cavs can easily say within the 8 point margin.
Pick:  Cleveland Cavs +8

Popularity: 24% [?]

Free NBA Playoff Picks - 5/16/08

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavs
First up on Friday we have the Boston Celtics as three point underdogs playing in Cleveland against Lebron James and some other players on the Cleveland Cavs.  Home teams have been absolutely sick in the playoffs so far this year, notching a 10-1 record with the Spurs off to a nice start to the first half of their home playoff game tonight (Thursday).  It’s about time for that trend to be broken.  Boston has a chance to end this series and there’s no real reason they can’t do it.  They had one of the best records on the road in the NBA during the regular season, and though they haven’t grabbed a win on the road in the playoffs, they certainly have the ability to.  Boston is clearly the better team.  They have better all-around talent, they’ve won more games, and they beat the Cavs on paper in nearly every major statistical category.  It’s not a stretch to think that Boston comes away with victory in Friday’s game, the line tells me that there is a manufactured expectation for the home team to win.  I don’t buy it.  I’m on Boston to finish up this series in game six.
Pick:  Boston Celtics +3

LA Lakers @ Utah Jazz
For all that I’ve already said about home teams in the playoffs this year, I do think this is a case where the home team can get it done.  It’s a very different situation, don’t you think?  The Lakers have been very impressive this season, but Utah has been just as impressive, if not more so because of their lack of star-power.  I also do know that Utah is a legitimately better team at home, so I expect this series to go the distance.  I’d really like this line to be a pick ‘em or 2 points, but I’ll bit on the 4, though my expectation is that the Lakers will finish out the series in LA in game seven.
Pick:  Utah Jazz -4

Popularity: 29% [?]

Free NBA Picks 3/14

Three free NBA picks Friday as we look at the biggest and best match-ups from around the association.  First up the Boston Celtics try to defend their incredible 29-4 home court record this season against a Utah Jazz team that’s capable of handing them that 5th home loss.  The tightest spread of the night comes in the Lakers/Hornets game, where we’ve got two teams that have blown past the expectations that the experts had for them at the start of the season.  We’ll finish up with San Antonio at Detroit, which has become one of my personal favorite show downs in the NBA because they have such similar mentalities and game philosophies.

As always, our picks come to you free of charge!  Here’s what’s going down Friday night :

Boston Celtics -7.5
The Celtics are doing everything that they were supposed to do after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.  They are winning a ridiculous number of games and they’re doing it in style with the average Boston game ending in a 10-point Celtics victory.  The boys in green are currently on a 10 game winning streak that includes 7 wins against the spread, not a bad clip if you were betting on the Celtics over the past few weeks.  The Jazz have been incredibly tough this year, just not on the road.  Utah is 43-23 overall this season with a 15-20 record on the road.  That’s a big enough advantage for us to lay the 7.5 points for Boston Friday.

L.A. Lakers -1.5
The Lakers have shed their label of being a poor team on the road.  Their 22-11 record is one of the better marks in the league.  That stat has been one of the biggest factors in their success this season.  Back in January the Lakers played at New Orleans and dominated the Hornets 109-80.  We’re not predicting a repeat performance, but it should give you plenty of confidence to take the Lakers -1.5 tonight.

Detroit Pistons -3.5
You simply can’t bet against the Pistons at home at this point in the season no matter who is coming to town.  Surprisingly, the Spurs have actually struggled historically late down the stretch.  More than likely they don’t actually “struggle” but their record suffers because they’ve locked up their playoff spot and can rest guys a little more often to get ready for the playoffs than they might if they needed to make a run to get in the playoffs.  I’m not suggesting that they tank games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and haven’t covered a spread in 8 of their last 10 contests.  The Pistons won the only other meeting this season 90-80 in San Antonio.  Now they get the Spurs in Detroit and we’re predicting another victory for the Pistons.

Popularity: 78% [?]

Tuesday’s Featured NBA Lines and Picks

The most interesting line on Tuesday’s NBA card comes in the Portland/Minnesota game.  Here we have a Minnesota team that has only managed 14 wins all season with only four of those wins coming on their home court, yet they are only a point and a half underdog against a 33 win Portland team.  Looking at the rest of the games today, there are a lot of big favorites as there are plenty of lop-sided match ups.  Here’s our rundown of today’s featured odds and our picks for each contest:

Portland Trail Blazers (33-31) at Minnesota Timberwolves (14-48)
Line:  Portland @ Minnesota +1.5
Over/Under:  189.5

Picks:  Portland Trail Blazers -1.5, Under 189.5
Minnesota only has four wins at home this year, this won’t be their fifth.

Memphis Grizzlies (15-47) at Phoenix Suns (41-22)
Line:  Memphis @ Phoenix -14
Over/Under:  220.5

Picks:  Phoenix Suns -14, Under 220.5
Memphis has covered just one spread in their last ten games, in 5 of those games they were double-digit underdogs and were still not able to cover the margin.  The Suns should have no problem breaking 100 points, but Memphis will be lucky to get to 90.

Seattle Super Sonics 16-47) at Indiana Pacers (24-39)
Line:  Seattle @ Indiana -9
Over/Under:  219

Picks:  Indiana Pacers -9, Under 219
The Pacers are coming off of three days of rest after a rough three game road trip, they should be rested and hungry for a win as they return to Indiana.

Utah Jazz (42-22) at Chicago Bulls (25-38)
Line:  Utah @ Chicago +3
Over/Under:  215

Picks:  Utah Jazz -3, Under 215
Utah is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they’ve been taking care of business on the road nearly as much as at home lately.

Toronto Raptors (34-28) at L.A. Lakers (44-19)
Line:  Toronto @ L.A. Lakers -9.5
Over/Under:  212

Picks:  L.A. Lakers -9.5, Over 212
The Lakers are firing on every cylinder right now, don’t bet against them at home.
 

Popularity: 67% [?]

Monday’s NBA Odds and Picks

Today’s NBA lines and picks are now posted.  The best match up of the day comes as the Denver Nuggets head to San Antonio to battle the Spurs.  Denver is still fighting to ensure they are given a playoffs spot, but they’ll have to go up against one of the best home teams in the NBA tonight.

Boston Celtics (49-12) at Philadelphia 76ers (30-33)
Line:  Boston @ Philadelphia +6
Over/Under:  195

Pick:  Boston Celtics -6, Over 195
Boston destroyed Philly earlier this season 116-86, expect similar results tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers (33-30) at Cleveland Cavs (36-27)
Line:  Portland @ Cleveland -6
Over/Under:  191.5

Pick:  Cleveland Cavs -6, Under 191.5
The Cavs are too good at home and the Blazers are too bad on the road.  Neither team scores a ton of points, the total should approach, but not go over, the 191.5 line.

New Jersey Nets (26-37) at Houston Rockets (42-20)
Line:  New Jersey @ Houston -13
Over/Under:  193

Pick:  New Jersey Nets +13, Over 193
The Nets are bad, but they aren’t that bad.  This game ends up closer than 13 points.

Denver Nuggets (37-25) at San Antonio Spurs (43-19)
Line:  Denver @ San Antonio -7
Over/Under:  204.5

Pick:  San Antonio Spurs -7, Under 204.5
The Spurs might be the best home team in the NBA.

Atlanta Hawks (26-36) at Orlando Magic (40-24)
Line:  Atlanta @ Orlando -10
Over/Under:  208

Pick:  Orlando Magic -10, Under 208
Atlanta continues to be one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Neither team gets to 100 points tonight.

L.A. Clippers (20-41) at Miami Heat (11-50)
Line:  L.A. Clippers @ Miami -3.5
Over/Under:  191

Pick:  L.A. Clippers +3.5, Under 191
Miami is only 6-24 at home this year.  At home.

Popularity: 69% [?]

Sunday’s NBA Odds and Picks

There’s not a ton of action in the NBA today, but with San Antonio visiting Phoenix there will be no shortage of action.  The Bulls are at Detroit in what will probably be a massacre, and the same thing can be said about the Lakers hosting the Kings tonight.  Both lines are double-digits and rightfully so. 

Betting Odds from BetUS.com

San Antonio Spurs (43-18) at Phoenix Suns (40-22)
Line:  San Antonio @ Phoenix +2
Over/Under:  203

Picks:  San Antonio Spurs -2, Under 203
If the Spurs can keep this game at their pace, which they have become masters at maintaining, they should win this game and easily keep it under 203 points.

 

Chicago Bulls (25-37) at Detroit Pistons (45-17)
Line:  Chicago @ Detroit -9.5
Over/Under:  195

Picks:  Chicago Bulls +9.5, Under 195
The Bulls have picked up the pace a little lately, not to mention they’ve beaten the Pistons outright in their last three meetings.  Take the points and the under as neither team should get to 100 points.

 

Sacramento Kings (27-35) at L.A. Lakers (44-18)
Line:  Sacramento @ L.A. Lakers -13
Over/Under:  222

Picks:  L.A. Lakers -13, Over 222
What do the Kings do better than the Lakers?  Nothing.  Take the Lakers and give the points.  Both teams will score a lot, hence the pick on the over, the Lakers will just score a lot more than the Kings.

Popularity: 52% [?]

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