Free MLB Pick - Friday 5/23
May 22, 2008
There may be a bundle of Major League Baseball games going on Friday, but we’ve got our eye on just one. Friday’s play is our biggest underdog play of the week, which means you’ll risk less and get paid more if our home dog hits. As always, we are looking at the value of the play and this match up is oozing with it.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitching is probably the single most important factor to consider when betting on baseball. At the same time, it’s also the most overrated factor. How can that be? Well, a hot or a consistent starting pitchers warrants a bet, but only if the price is right. You have to be a bargain shopper out there. Don’t throw your cash out on Brandon Webb every time he takes the mound. Not because you won’t win the majority of the time, because most of the time the risk isn’t worth the reward, especially in baseball. I’d be much less likely to throw down 100 to win 170 than I would be to bet the 170 in order to win the 100. The value just isn’t there and, in the long run, you’ll never come out ahead betting on big favorites in baseball. Friday the Pirates are +155 (or better) underdogs against the Chicago Cubs and Carlos Zambrano. The Big Z is a fireballer, no questions about that, but he’s also inconsistent and seems to break-down mentally more than some of the other big-name pitchers. The Pirates really are not as bad as they have been in the past. They have some significant pop in their lineup, plus they are playing at home. The value here is on Pittsburgh.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +155
Popularity: 36% [?]
Free NBA Eastern Conference Finals Prediction
May 21, 2008
Game two of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off Thursday night. The Celtics won a decisive victory in game one of the Eastern Conference finals. Boston has the momentum, but the Pistons have plenty of motivation. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Pistons don’t want to go back to Detroit down 2-0, but The Rolling Stones said it best: “You can’t always get what you want”.
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
You aren’t going to catch me going against the winning home team trend in the NBA Playoffs. There’s just no reason to question it at this point, just sit back and enjoy the ride. It will inevitably end, but when you have a very good team like the Celtics, who have already proven they can win at home during the regular season and throughout the playoffs thus far, you simply have no rational reason to go against them.
Pick: Boston Celtics -3.5
Popularity: 36% [?]
Thursday’s Free MLB Picks
May 21, 2008
There are a lot of great games going in Major League Baseball on Thursday. We’ll take a look at our three best bets of the day including a very nice home underdog, plus one line that really jumped out and got me excited!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Yes, I’m on the Pirates again. Why not? They have just as good of a record as the Brewers, and they have the better starting pitcher going tonight. Until the Brew Crew find some stability in their middle and long relief I won’t be betting on them, I’ll be betting against them.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -120
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins
I love a good home underdog. I know that Arizona has looked unstoppable early on, but the Marlins have a great young team that could easily capitalize on a road-weary D-Backs squad.
Pick: Florida Marlins +112
New York Mets -113 @ Atlanta Braves
The Mets aren’t great, but Johan Santana still is. He’s not getting the hype he did in Minnesota, though I’m not sure why. He still has great numbers, they just aren’t astronomically better than everyone else. I will take him at -113 100 times out of 100, at home or on the road. It just doesn’t matter. Take the Mets Thursday.
Pick: New York Mets -113
Popularity: 40% [?]
NBA Wednesday - Western Conference Finals Pick
May 21, 2008
Wednesday night’s NBA contest pits the San Antonio Spurs against the Los Angeles Lakers. I’m struggling to decide if this is the match up that everyone has been waiting for. For all of their success, the Spurs are, by perception or reality, a boring team to watch. It’s not that they don’t have good players, and it’s not that they don’t make exciting plays, it just feels like there is always a grey cloud following them around. Maybe it’s just me. The Lakers are nearly the opposite of the Spurs in style, they seem young and fresh and explosive, yet they are unproven. I don’t know if it’s the match up you’ve been waiting for, but I’ve just convinced myself that the contrasting styles should make for a fun Western Conference Finals series!
San Antonio Spurs @ L.A. Lakers
You can say that I’ve gone and drank the media’s Kool-Aid, but I’ve become a believer in the power of home court in the NBA Playoffs. It’s been such an overwhelming trend that I can’t justify going against it, especially in these circumstances. In the two regular season games between the Spurs and the Lakers, one game was played in L.A., the other in San Antonio. Can you guess the results? OK, don’t guess, I’ll just tell you. The Lakers won in L.A. and the Spurs won in San Antonio. They not only won, but they covered the spread. L.A. won their game by 21 points, the Spurs by 12. The Lakers are seven point favorites right now. I’m not so sure they are going to win by 21 points, but 10+ wouldn’t be out of the question.
Pick: L.A. Lakers -7
Popularity: 26% [?]
Wednesday’s Free Hot MLB Picks
May 20, 2008
For Wednesday we’ll take a look at a pair of big value under dogs in Major League Baseball. Remember that the key in betting baseball is in the quality of the bets, as well as the quality of the lines. You can drastically improve your risk-to-profit ratio by finding and betting consistent winning underdogs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Home dogs aren’t as strong in baseball as they are in other sports, but they are always worth a look. I’ve been ragging on the Brewer’s bullpen all season and with good reason. They simply can’t hold a lead. The Brewers should also have concern for Ben Sheet’s lack of control after about the 4th inning. The guy hasn’t pitched a full season in a long time, take it easy on him!
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +115
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
Huh? This is an easy win for the Tigers, you say? There’s no such thing for the Tigers this season who, despite being touted by all of the major sports networks as the offensive powerhouse to end all other discussions of offensive powerhouses in MLB history, are ten games under .500 and (at press) actually have a worse record than the Mariners. The bats just aren’t what everyone thought they would be and the pitching has also been consistently underwhelming in Detroit.
Pick: Seattle Mariners +130
Popularity: 36% [?]
NBA Playoff Pick 5/20/2008
May 20, 2008
Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off on Tuesday night. The first match-up in the East features the much touted Boston Celtics against the wily veteran Detroit Pistons. It’s a clash of two great teams to be sure, but with Boston currently sitting as 4.5 point favorites at home, which direction should your bets be leaning?
Game 1 - Eastern Conference Finals - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
The Pistons are one of the few teams to have actually picked up a win against the Celtics in Boston in the regular season this year. While that’s quite a feat itself, don’t let that sway your opinion too much. I saw the Celtics build a lot of confidence in their last series. Face it, they face as much pressure as anyone because they are expected to win every time they step on the court. That’s completely unrealistic of course, but what’s not unrealistic is to expect them to come out and win big every time they step on their home court in the playoffs.
Your Game 1 Winner: Boston Celtics -4.5
Popularity: 25% [?]
Free MLB Picks 5/20/2008
May 20, 2008
There’s a full plate of Major League Baseball games to whet your betting appetite on Tuesday, the only questions is, who are the day’s top plays? Look no further my good friends as Lines and Picks runs down the best baseball bets for this Tuesday.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Who would have thought that the Pirates would be equal to the Brewers in wins at this point in the season? As Milwaukee’s bullpen woes continue you can expect us to fade them in the right situations. This happens to be one of them.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -110
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins
If the D-Backs have a weakness, it would have to be on the road where they are just one game over .500. The Marlins are probably the biggest surprise of the year. After losing Miguel Cabrera they’ve really stepped up to the plate, so to speak, with the sensational Hanley Ramirez leading the way.
Pick: Florida Marlins +115
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
Don’t look now, but the Indians are really starting to come alive. They are still struggling a little at the plate as a team, but I’d expect that to even out as the season progresses. Their real success will come from their pitching, however, and Tuesday’s starter, C.C. Sabathia, is starting to find his confidence.
Pick: Cleveland Indians -120
Popularity: 27% [?]
Free NBA Playoff Pick 5/19/2008
May 18, 2008
The Spurs and Hornets meet for game seven of the Western Conference Semi-Finals Monday. San Antonio has dominated the West for the better part of a decade, but there could be a passing of the guard to Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets
By now you’ve probably heard all of the talk about home teams winning at an unprecedented rate in the NBA Playoffs this year. It’s 100% true, but nowhere is it more apparent than in the Spurs/Hornets series. Seriously, the home team is a perfect 6-0 and the margin of victory in those games is sick. We are talking about the home team winning by 19, 22, 20, 18, 11, and 19 again throughout the course of this series. If that’s not an advantage to the Hornets, I don’t know what is! Besides that point, you also have to love the enthusiasm of the younger, more exciting New Orleans team.
Pick: New Orleans Hornets -4
Popularity: 27% [?]
Free NBA Playoff Pick 5/18/2008
May 18, 2008
The NBA’s Eastern Conference Semi Finals will have a winner Sunday. Home teams have gone 13-2 so far in the playoffs. Will the Celtics follow suit or can Lebron and the Cavs beat the odds?
Cleveland Cavs @ Boston Celtics
I think you have to follow the home trend for this game, which says the game’s winner will be the home team. In this case, the Boston Celtics. I have to agree that they will likely win the game. Eight points, however, is pretty steep for the playoffs, Boston has played much better at home during the playoffs, but they haven’t been the dominant team everyone remembers from the regular season. As long as Lebron is healthy the Cavs can easily say within the 8 point margin.
Pick: Cleveland Cavs +8
Popularity: 24% [?]
Free Baseball Picks 5/18/08
May 18, 2008
For Sunday we’ll take a look at two high-value MLB bets.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
OK, so the Cubs are hot, I get it, but I don’t get the Pirates as +150 underdogs against Jason Marquis. This is still baseball. Anything can happen. I’ll take the nice beefy underdog. Ketchup only, please.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +150
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Shaun Marcum is one of the best young pitchers in baseball (seriously, check the stats), but he doesn’t seem to be getting any love from odds makers. It’s true that the Phillies have some very dangerous bats in their line up, but I’m on board with Marcum and the Jays Sunday.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +100
Popularity: 31% [?]
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